Our Community Feed is a public forum for investors and portfolio company executives to share why and how they Connect Stories to Statistics, as well as a secure platform for our clients and their approved micro-communities to actually do so for the specific strategic and investment decisions that they are working on together. Click the button below to open the Community Feed, drag some chart bars there to explore odds for a future event, and click Post Your Odds to share them and receive premium content.
PRIVATE EQUITY & VENTURE
Clients bring to the BPN team a business plan or investment thesis and the knowledge pile they’ve already gathered to support it.
Our team identifies templates in our Platform that suit the plan or thesis, applies the client’s knowledge pile to the template, and responds within 5 business days with an Initial Underwriting that Connects Stories to Statistics to amplify the client's work into more scenarios for more confident strategy and investment decisions.
The BPN team supports a client's diligence process, mapping research to key issues, engaging client's micro-communities to add to the knowledge pile via our secure Platform, and producing a Final Underwriting that complements the client’s existing documentation with more scenarios to support more confidence on key decisions.
In the example slide below from a Final Underwriting, you can click the cases with the most negative net cash in the bottom chart to see that they correspond to the highest valuations in the top chart, providing more confidence in the key decision of how much extra dilution to accept in a funding round in exchange for extra time before needing the next funding round (if you are reading on a smartphone, flipping to landscape mode helps with these interactive charts):
Each Final Underwriting on our Platform continues to live and breathe throughout the life of the investment. As company results roll in, research accumulates and the environment changes. We map the evidence to drivers and update the valuation outlook. In the example slide below, we can track not just whether actual net cash “beat” or “missed” a single forecast but how it compares to the Final Underwriting’s odds of being below each actual figure.
When we do our work right, our clients make better risk-adjusted decisions, with greater transparency and higher confidence.
Our co-founders are in their third decade of working together to connect stories to statistics, combining messy practice and hard science. Now they make BPN’s team of 10+ analysts and software developers available to help you be more strategic in your decision making.
The BPN Platform integrates “research management” and “statistical modeling,” making it practical for us all to start by organizing data, research, and qualitative insight and end with probabilistic scenarios based on logic rather than random Monte Carlo simulation.