We asked 200 people to predict American history in 2017. Here's what we found

Shortly after Election Day 2016, ClearerThinking took part in organizing a novel research project. Inspired by their longstanding interest in making more accurate predictions, they collaborated with affiliates to set up a long-term experiment: how accurately could different groups of people predict the political events of the coming years? Findings from the first year of the Trump presidency demonstrate the intriguing power of group forecasts.