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solution

National Science Foundation research grants encouraged us to tackle a very comprehensive solution even though that is much more difficult than the piecemeal solutions that most managers and engineers attempt.  We iterated through designs over 10 years while using these designs actively to invest capital.  Ultimately, we integrated “research management” with “statistical modeling.”
 

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Our final patented design makes it practical to utilize Logical Graphical Models to organize research more scalably than with folders or tags and to translate it into Probabilistic Graphical Models, which then enable multiplying scenarios for strategic decisions’ impact without multiplying story-writing.

Logical Graphical Model

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Probabilistic Graphical Model

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Our innovative integration of these 2 types of Graphical Models runs in the cloud on a standards-compliant technology stack, with or without integration with Excel files from leaders’ teams.

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PROBLEM

Great leaders can distill myriad influences on a strategic decision to a handful of bullet points.

  • Snap Daily Active Users by Region in 2030
  • Snap Daily Views per User in 2030
  • Snap Average Ads per View in 2030
  • Snap Average Ad CPM by Region in 2030
  • Snap WACC

But their teams struggle to link detailed research to multiple bullets using folders or tags.
 

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And their teams really struggle to translate insight about even 2 scenarios for 5 bullet points into scenarios for the strategic decision's outcome.

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So leaders’ teams typically capitulate on sincere upside / downside analysis and deliver a spreadsheet, memo, and slides focused on 1 over-engineered base case, with little more than lip service to downside and upside cases by multiplying the base case by 90% and 110%, respectively, or thereabouts.  

That capitulation causes leaders to sacrifice some great upsides and suffer some great downsides.
 

Benefits

At last, the Bullet Point Network Platform makes it practical for leaders to make their strategic decisions based on explicit, probabilistic estimates of the decisions’ upsides and downsides based on their team’s research into key drivers of those decisions.  With support from their team, as well as Services from BPN’s Team, they can:

1. Attach research directly to key drivers instead of losing it in a “roach motel” of folders and tags

2. Drill from scenarios for the strategic decision to scenarios for its key drivers and vice versa

3. Drive data science not only with numbers from the past but also with stories about future scenarios

4. Make strategic decisions with both the creativity of stories and the discipline of statistics!