Bullet Point Network helps venture investors and early-stage portfolio companies be more strategic by connecting stories to statistics. We build models, provide insight, and support your decision-making process.
Paired with a team of fundamental analysts, we use our patented graph database and dozens of frameworks that we’ve used to model hundreds of companies to give you a full picture on any company. We start with your knowledge and then include all the insight you can get from our networks, like industry expert interviews and natural language processing (NLP) tools. Plus, we use what you and your team gather every day — giving you a deeper, more robust understanding of where a company’s future lies.
Our process is fundamentally simple: We believe making a call on the long-term future of early-stage companies is best done by humans. But we also believe in the power of going beyond qualitative views on TEAM, total addressable market (TAM), and product differentiation. To do that, we support human research and a thorough decision-making process powered by BPN’s patented logical and probabilistic models, which we use to organize research, map evidence to your key drivers, and produce probability-based scenarios for what may unfold. We also keep each company’s model continually updated with new information, allowing us to measure how the company tracks relative to milestones over time.
To think about it conceptually, imagine a spreadsheet where right next to the cell for a key assumption — such as TAM, unit pricing, or margins — you have all the evidence that supports a specific judgment. This is exactly where we start.
Next, we connect related issues and map influence relationships. By tracking how X influences Y and Z, our proprietary framework allows for any changes to our judgment on X to flow directly to Y and Z, just like they would in a real-life decision-making scenario.
Using YOUR insight and logic — not a random Monte Carlo analysis based on past data alone — we build scenarios for each key driver based on evidence and judgments. Then we connect the drivers together in an integrated financial model showing future cash flows.
With our models, we can literally run hundreds of logical combinations on all key drivers and see the results of hundreds of scenarios showing what cash flows might result. The best part? Each scenario is built on sound logic and includes the probability that the scenario will occur.
When it comes to the specifics, we often zero in on 5-7 representative cases to see in more detail what is most likely, most attractive, or most risky. With this insight, we support our investment decision on walk-away price and sizing. For the portfolio company, we deliver a framework to map new evidence, to make strategic operational decisions on key drivers, and to really understand how the company is tracking relative to milestones over time. And with that, we’re able to help deliver insight to raise new rounds of capital or to start the conversation about exit values.
We have dozens of proprietary frameworks and industry models, to which we add YOUR knowledge about company-specific drivers so YOU can make better decisions. Naturally, we focus a lot on cash burn and equity upside, and we prefer to work with companies who can fund enough runway to validate specific milestones.
To understand how BPN ties together all the knowledge you have on a company to support better decision making, check out our video below:
But we’re more than just a platform, and that’s what makes us unique. We have frameworks for all kinds of companies: pre-FDA biotechs, promising pre-revenue B2B companies, B2C platforms with customer traction who need to scale, accelerating growth stage companies, companies approaching peak market share, companies in almost every stage and segment, but we also have analysts. Those analysts are an extension of your team — helping with research and modeling — and bolstering our proprietary software platform to support every kind of investment and portfolio company.
We often model multiple dimensions — like sequential product rollouts, regional market penetration, and alternative distribution channels — and we always look at multiple time horizons. For example: While we do model the ACTUAL probabilistic cash flows over long time horizons (like 2030 or 2050), we have a proprietary framework to estimate how expectations for those future cash flows may change over shorter time frames – like when you raise your next round in 18 months or look to exit in 5 years – always based on tracking key drivers and reaching important milestones.
These are things venture investors and company CEOs talk about all the time. With Bullet Point Network, you can harness that knowledge and quantify your key judgments to analyze the likelihood and impact of potential scenarios occurring.
Want to learn more about BPN’s strategy and how it could work for you? Get in touch with our team to get more insight into our process.